Update: Modified numbers to account for Mississippi.
Update 2: Modified numbers to account for Pennsylvania. Yes, even though Hillary won, her chances have decreased.
Update 3: Modified numbers to account for Indiana, North Carolina, and Guam. At this point the news media actually seems to have acknowledged that the race is over, so this rant no longer applies. However, the numbers are still fun to track.
Update 4: Modified numbers to account for West Virginia, Kentucky, and Oregon. It's just silly now.

Hillary Clinton has lost. She has no chance of winning. Stop acting like it's close. It's not. It's over.

There are 549 516 408 217 86 pledged delegates left. Obama leads by 156 161 161* 171 158. That means Clinton would have to win the rest of the races by a 29% 31% 39% 79% 184% margin to have the majority of pledged delegates. Unless it comes out that Obama has committed some kind of felony, this just isn't going to happen. This is, of course, mathematically impossible.

I know you like talking about superdelegates. But they don't matter. The superdelegates will back the winner of the pledged delegates. They have to. If they steal the election away from the people and give it to Hillary, blacks and young people will stay home in November. They know this, and they won't do it.

What about Michigan and Florida? OK, fine. That's 366 more delegates. Then Hillary has to win those two plus all the other remaining contests by an average margin of 17% 18% 21% 29% 35%. This is still extremely unlikely. Clinton has only won 3 states with an 35% margin or more: Rhode Island (18%), New York (17%), Arkansas (44%), Oklahoma (24%), West Virginia (41%), and Kentucky (35%). Her margin in Florida -- with no campaigning and with Edwards still in the race -- was just under 17%. Her margin in Michigan -- where she was the only major candidate on the ballot -- was 15% (vs. "uncommitted"). Polls show Obama would do better in both races (possibly winning Michigan) if there were a revote, which there would have to be for their delegates to be counted. Obama will probably allow these states to be seated based on the existing votes, since they won't change the result (assuming "uncommitted" Michigan delegates go for Obama).

What about the popular vote? If Hillary has more total votes, might she be able to make some sort of argument about... uh... something? Well, first remember that Obama does extremely well in caucuses: he has won almost every one of them, usually by large margins. Apparently when people are made to talk to each other about their votes, far more people end up choosing Obama in the end. However, it takes more effort to attend a caucus since you have to be there at a certain time and stay there for a couple hours. Therefore, far fewer people turn out to them. Thus, the "popular vote" unfairly disfavors caucus states. These states and their residents should not be penalized for using a different system! Furthermore, four caucus states -- including Washington, a largish state where Obama won with a margin of 37% -- have not even released popular vote numbers. All of this makes the so-called "popular vote" deceptive, making Clinton look like she has more support than she actually does. Party insiders -- e.g. superdelegates -- understand this, and if this talk continues, the people will come to understand it as well. Of course, despite all this, Obama is still leading in the popular vote by a significant margin.

There is simply no likely scenario in which Clinton wins the nomination. Period. Yet you, the news media, choose to perpetuate the idea that the race is "close" in order to keep people watching. You are spreading misinformation, and this misinformation is damaging the Democratic Party by preventing Obama from shifting to a national campaign. Although I don't believe it will hurt him that much in the end, I'd really prefer that the media report things as they are, rather than try to contrive the most interesting story.

* Hillary gained 10 delegates on Obama in the Pennsylvania primary. However, between the Mississippi and Pennsylvania primaries, Obama actually gained 10 delegates on Hillary as various estimates for other states became more accurate. So, he still leads by 161.